Treasury yields are relatively flat in early trading. The 10-year is currently 4.696%, just below this morning's open near 4.708%. Longer-dated yields have stalled out after the Treasury Department announced its extended debt repurchase program amid rising U.S. debt. Stocks are higher, and mortgage bonds are slightly lower to start the day.
01What's moving markets today
U.S. manufacturing and services PMI data is due out at 9:45 a.m. ET. Recent data suggests both sectors remain steady, with continued expansion taking place — forecasts for both measures sit near 54, a good bit above the 50-point line that separates expansion from contraction. Next week brings a heavier data calendar: PCE inflation, revised Q2 GDP, and New Home Sales are all on deck.
02ICE Home Price Index: the case for tomorrow's opportunity
Mortgage rates have been on the rise and remain the focal point for most potential buyers. That's always going to matter — but it can be just as effective to focus on the opportunity of tomorrow, especially given the resilient appreciation showing up across most of the country right now.
ICE released its home price index for August, showing home values rose 0.21% nationally on average for the month. Year-over-year, prices are up 1.71% — the highest annual growth rate in 14 months.
Looking at the past six months of data and annualizing it, ICE's appreciation rate is on track for roughly 3% — right in line with forecast. It's worth noting that ICE seasonally adjusts these numbers, meaning the typical spring-market strength is already factored in rather than inflating the headline figure.
3% appreciation doesn't sound like much on its own — but compounded over a decade, it's still a meaningful driver of wealth creation for homeowners.
Using a 3% annual appreciation rate on a $500,000 home, a homeowner would gain roughly $15,000 in the first year, $80,000 over five years, and $171,000 over ten years. The appreciation calculator inside MBS Highway can help illustrate this opportunity for your local market — it pulls in historical and forecasted appreciation, plus custom rates you choose, so you can show clients the numbers for their specific area.
03What's on deck next week
Tuesday brings ADP's weekly employment data, the Case-Shiller and FHFA home price appreciation reports, and New Home Sales. Wednesday is a bigger one: mortgage applications, PCE inflation data, the second reading on Q2 GDP, and Durable Goods Orders. Thursday brings jobless claims, and Friday closes the week with QCEW jobs revisions and a speech from Fed Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium — worth watching for any shift in tone on the Fed's next move.
Rates are holding steady to close the week, but the more interesting story right now is on the appreciation side: home values are growing at their fastest annual pace in over a year, and that's a real tailwind for buyers thinking about the next several years rather than just today's rate. Next week's calendar is loaded — PCE, GDP, new home sales, and Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks could all move the conversation. Use the appreciation numbers to help clients see the fuller picture, and lean on your loan officer to run the local math.